The report looks at subscriber market data to determine which operators have the most incremental risk to FiOS with 2 metrics: subscriber exposure and penetration. With Verizon winding down the FiOS build-out, analysts forecast that the focus will be on increasing subscriber penetration in target markets: NYC, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. According to the report:
· Within the target markets, TWC has the most exposure in NYC with 11% subscriber exposure and 18% market penetration.
· In looking at all overall FiOS' current markets, TWC has the most sub exposure, at 40%, followed by (sub exposure/market penetration) DTV (29%, 14%) and DISH (25%, 9%).
What is missing here is the potential impact of aggressive upgrades and marketing amongst the cable MSO's. Verizon will only accelerate their loss of wireline phone and DSL customers as Docsis 3.0 is deployed and advanced television services are offered by cable.
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